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I don’t think that you win by being open, per se, but by enabling relevant functionality in a way that works for non-developer-types. If you make it free, and make it accessible, and give a lot of influence to a decentralized community of spreaders, you can see the kind of success that Firefox has had elsewhere.To wit, Firefox didn’t necessarily do anything different than Internet Explorer, except support web standards, make tabbed browsing more accessible, and limit the spread of mal- and spyware. But Firefox would not have existed had Internet Explorer not grown to monopoly scale and then stagnated.Similarly, the contest between Friend Connect and OpenID (and the related cadre of Open Stack technologies) has needed a proprietary example of where this stuff is going to get the open source community motivated to commoditize it. Rarely do we see good design leadership from open source technologies; instead we see open developers want to do cool things or serve their own needs and not have to answer to a central authority.Once Facebook Connect does capture more mindshare and real estate, I believe it’s then that open source will react. Fortunately, there will be enough meat on the bones of OpenID, OAuth, PoCo, Activity Streams and other DiSo-esque technologies that it won’t take too long to catch up.Your point is well taken; we do need a killer app to demonstrate the value of OpenID. But I think it will come in time. I’m actually not too worried about that. I am, however, more worried about whether OpenID will stay true to its roots or be corrupted by short-sighted corporate involvement.

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